Tomorrow, the new American president will give his first press-conference and will answer questions from journalists. Questions are not only about the prospect of building a wall on the border with Mexico and other foreign policy issues, as well as relating to domestic economic policy. At the beginning of the New, Year Dollar does not feel very confident and these are the consequences because the markets think about the correctness of aggressive currency purchases only based on doubts about the implementation of election promises Trump. These doubts and increased uncertainty and led many traders to reduce some longs on USD. Before the election, D. Trump promised to increase spending on infrastructure and thus reduce taxes. So mainly the questions to the President will concern how he is going to fulfil his promises without increasing the budget deficit. Recall that Trump has promised to increase spending to 1.5 trillion dollars, in this case, the tax cuts will reduce the federal budget by $ 6 trillion. And if a new president would announce different figures or do not fulfil his promises to the Dollar, due to confounding expectations may be disappointed and will weaken the exchange rate. However, we hope that Trump will not deliberately provoke the weakening of the exchange rate. As for the risk assets, for them, the main risk is a change in foreign policy. Mainly these are changes to trade agreements, building a wall on the Mexican border, the introduction of protective tariffs against products from China etc. Accordingly, the a possible increase in pressure on the Mexican peso and the Chinese Yuan. But the Ruble, on the other hand, can improve the position if Trump confirms that Washington is set to improve relations with the Kremlin.
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